Country and Political Risk (2nd edition)

Sam Wilkin

Sam Wilkin is Senior Advisor, Political Risk to Oxford Analytica and Senior Advisor, Business Research to Oxford Economics. Oxford Economics, founded in 1981 as a joint venture with Oxford University’s Templeton College, is one of the world’s foremost economic forecasting and research consultancies. Oxford Analytica, founded in 1975, is a leading geopolitical analysis and strategic advisory firm. Sam previously served as head of business research at Oxford Economics, deputy director of the consultancy practice at Oxford Analytica, head of US political risk consulting for Aon Trade Credit, and director of country analysis for Marvin Zonis & Associates. Sam studied economics at Eckerd College and received his MA in international relations from the University of Chicago. He is co-author of Risk Rules: How Local Politics Threaten the Global Economy (Agate B2, 2011), and the editor of the first edition of Country and Political Risk (Risk Books, 2004). He is the author of numerous articles on political risk and economic development, including “Can Bad Governance Be Good for Development?” in Survival, the journal of the International Institute for Strategic Studies. He was the 2004 alumni fellow for Eckerd College. He currently divides his time between New York and Oxford.

Preface: Two Economists' Views on the Bank-sovereign Linkage
Sam Wilkin (Oxford Analytica and Oxford Economics) in conversation with Martin Wolf and Martin Hellwig

Introduction
Sam Wilkin (Oxford Analytica and Oxford Economics)

Part I: Assessing Country Risk

1. Assessing Country Risk: A Practical Guide
Pascaline della Faille (Delcredere | Ducroire)

2.Sovereign Risk: Characteristics, History and a Review of Recent Research
Christian Friedrich Buschmann (Frankfurt School of Finance and Management)

3. The Arab Spring: Insights for Political Risk Analysis
Therese Feng (Jefferies Group LLC)

4. The Eurozone Crisis: The Forgotten Risks of Private and External Debt
Greetje Frankena, Daan Willebrands, John Lorié and Daniel Bosgraaf (Atradius Credit Insurance)

5. How the Eurozone Crisis Became a Banking Crisis, and the Risk of Japanization
Katsura Daikuhara (Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation Europe)

Part II: New Country Risk Issues and Indicators

6. The Changing Dynamics of Country Risk
Max Schieler (RobecoSAM)

7. Capital Flight as a Political Risk Indicator
Michel-Henry Bouchet (Skema Business School and North Sea Global Equity Management)

8. Debt Crisis Indicators of Emerging Markets vs. Eurozone Economies
Roberto Savona (University of Brescia), Marika Vezzoli (University of Brescia) and Enrico Ciavolino (University of Salento)

Part III: Improving Country Risk Management

9. How Much Economic Capital Could European Banks Save? The Case for Optimal Sovereign Risk Allocation
Carlo Capuano (Intesa Sanpaolo Bank) and Luigi Ruggerone

10. Fixing Fundamental Flaws in Probabilistic Country Risk Models
Bertrand Groslambert (SKEMA Business School)

11. Have We Learned the Country Risk Management Lessons of the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis?
Christine Shields (Shields Economics)

12. Using Systems Thinking to Enhance Country Risk Assessment
Victoire de Groote and Seth Aslin (HSBC)

13. Approaches to Quantification of Country Risk
Paul Domjan (Roubini Global Economics)

14. Stress Testing Across International Exposures and Activities
Robert Scavotto and Robert Skinkle (Office of the Comptroller of Currency)