Country and Political Risk - Risk Books
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Country and Political Risk

Edited By Sam Wilkin


Provides a fully comprehensive overview of the factors affecting global investment, including practical insights and research on assessing country risk, in-depth analysis of country risk cases and advice on how to manage a country risk portfolio.

This is now has a second edition, due for publication in April 2015. Please follow this link to take a look.

Publish date: 1 Dec 2004

Availability: Out of stock


Book description

  • By examining country and political risk from a banking and insurance perspective the book is a vital resource for portfolio and direct investors
  • As a foreign investor, you will be better armed with all the tools and techniques to effectively assess the risk of investing in a particular country
  • Leading practitioners, academics and economists discuss essential topics such as:
  • Best practice in country risk and Basel II
  • Theories of crises
  • Stress-testing
  • Measuring state stability and political risk
  • Country risk and the private sector
  • Country risk indicators and early warning systems
  • Currency inconvertibility
  • Pricing of political risk
  • You will benefit from the experience of authors from such world-leading organisations as: ABN Amro, Aon Political Risk, Duke University , Bank for International Settlements, Oxford Analytica, Fitch Ratings, the World Bank and many more
  • Provides insight and advice on the ratings available from various organisations that offer country-rating services
  • Addresses key issues surrounding some of the most volatile world markets and provides in-depth analysis through a range of revealing interviews and case studies of the crucial markets from around the globe
  • Offers practical advice to help you formulate effective internal strategies for country risk management, including an analysis of the available methodologies and systems for assessing country risk, such as econometric systems and qualitative approaches
  • Also covers: stress testing, measuring state stability and political risk, pricing a political risk portfolio, forecasting currency crises, emerging markets, capital market products, international lending, regulatory issues and Basel II, country risk rating and much more
  • An indispensable resource not only to financial institutions but to all businesses that operate on a global level

Book details

Publish date
1 Dec 2004
155mm x 235mm

Editor biography

Sam Wilkin

Sam Wilkin is Senior Advisor, Political Risk to Oxford Analytica and Senior Advisor, Business Research to Oxford Economics. Oxford Economics, founded in 1981 as a joint venture with Oxford University’s Templeton College, is one of the world’s foremost economic forecasting and research consultancies. Oxford Analytica, founded in 1975, is a leading geopolitical analysis and strategic advisory firm.

Sam previously served as head of business research at Oxford Economics, deputy director of the consultancy practice at Oxford Analytica, head of US political risk consulting for Aon Trade Credit, and director of country analysis for Marvin Zonis & Associates. Sam studied economics at Eckerd College and received his MA in international relations from the University of Chicago. He is co-author of Risk Rules: How Local Politics Threaten the Global Economy (Agate B2, 2011), and the editor of the first edition of Country and Political Risk (Risk Books, 2004). He is the author of numerous articles on political risk and economic development, including “Can Bad Governance Be Good for Development?” in Survival, the journal of the International Institute for Strategic Studies. He was the 2004 alumni fellow for Eckerd College. He currently divides his time between New York and Oxford.

Table of contents


Sam Wilkin

Section 1. Assessing Country Risk

1, Currency and Banking Crises: a Review of the Theories

Stijn Claessens

World Bank

2, Currency and Debt Crises: a Review of the Early Warning Systems

Alessio Ciarlone and Giorgio Trebeschi

Banca d’Italia

3, New Developments in Country Risk: the New Anatomy of Crises, Rising Public Debt Burdens, and Basel II

Khalid Sheikh and Peter Heijmans

ABN Amro

4, Assessing State Stability and Political Risk in Emerging Markets

Preston Keat and Alexander Motyl

Eurasia Group

5, Country Risk Components, the Cost of Capital, and Returns in Emerging Markets

Campbell Harvey

Duke University

6, The Private Sector Component of Country Risk

Carl Adams

eStandards Forum

7, Four Experts Discuss the Science and Art of Country Analysis

Sam Wilkin

Section 2. Country Risk Cases

8, Building a Stress-Test Scenario for Country Risk: the Case of Turkey

Luigi Ruggerone

Banca Intesa

9, Domestic and External Political Factors and Country Risk: the Case of China

Therese Feng

Fitch Ratings

10, Structural Weaknesses and Country Risk: the Case of Brazil

Christian Stracke


11, Assessing Operational Risk: the Case of Russia

Guy Dunn

World Markets Research Centre

Section 3. Managing a country risk portfolio

12, Best Practices in Country Risk Management

Michael Bates

Oxford Analytica

13, Why Firms Fail to Manage Political Risk: Explaining and Correcting Organisational Failures

Michel Leonard

Aon Trade Credit

14, Pricing Political Risk within an Economic Capital Framework

Jotaro Hamada, Henning Haugerudbraaten; Andrew Hickman, Ilya Khaykin

Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency; Erisk

15, Managing Currency Inconvertibility and Exchange Transfer Risk: Identification, Assessment and Risk Transfer Issues

Martin Stone

Aon Political Risk

16, The Expanding Market for Sovereign Credit Default Swaps

Frank Packer; Chamaree Suthiphongchai

Bank for International Settlements; Bank of Thailand




“ risk analysis is too important to be practiced in isolation. Institutions and corporations must bring their learning and experience on best practices out into the open, and this publication is a worthy step in the right direction.“

Michael Bates, Oxford Analytica

Customer Reviews

Average customer reviews for Country and Political Risk

A wide ranging guide

This book covers everything, from the basics of analysis to managing a global political risk portfolio. It's very useful to compare against what you're doing in-house. They tell you what they're doing at ABN Amro, the World Bank, etc. Some of the chapters advance the state of the art. The chapter on the World Bank's quantitative analysis of its political risk portfolio is a must-read for anyone in insurance, I think. The case study of doing a country risk stress-test on Turkey, and the "best practices" chapter, which reviews what financial institutions worldwide are doing to manage country risk, are also especially good. There's also really good analysis of Brazil. It's a high-quality book, worth the price.
Review by Jae Park , 18/03/2014

Really informative

I'm a student and interested in political risk; I bought this book to get insight into the field, and I am not disappointed. The authors have all worked for years in political risk, and they share practical insights, based on work they have done. The best part, for me, though, is that it covers all the bases; it includes a lot of different political risk assessment frameworks -- used by banks, academics, mutual funds, insurance companies, direct investors, and rating agencies -- so instead of just one perspective, you get to see how a range of different practitioners deal with it. Some of the chapters are a little dry, but there's also a lot of fascinating material, including an interview with some intelligence people, and cases on China and Turkey. All in all, I recommend it highly.
Review by Martin Indyck , 18/03/2014

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