SUMMARY

• By examining country and political risk from a banking and insurance perspective the book is a vital resource for portfolio and direct investors

• As a foreign investor, you will be better armed with all the tools and techniques to effectively assess the risk of investing in a particular country

• Leading practitioners, academics and economists discuss essential topics such as:

• Best practice in country risk and Basel II

• Theories of crises

• Stress-testing

• Measuring state stability and political risk

• Country risk and the private sector

• Country risk indicators and early warning systems

• Currency inconvertibility

• Pricing of political risk

• You will benefit from the experience of authors from such world-leading organisations as: ABN Amro, Aon Political Risk, Duke University , Bank for International Settlements, Oxford Analytica, Fitch Ratings, the World Bank and many more

• Provides insight and advice on the ratings available from various organisations that offer country-rating services

• Addresses key issues surrounding some of the most volatile world markets and provides in-depth analysis through a range of revealing interviews and case studies of the crucial markets from around the globe

• Offers practical advice to help you formulate effective internal strategies for country risk management, including an analysis of the available methodologies and systems for assessing country risk, such as econometric systems and qualitative approaches

• Also covers: stress testing, measuring state stability and political risk, pricing a political risk portfolio, forecasting currency crises, emerging markets, capital market products, international lending, regulatory issues and Basel II, country risk rating and much more

• An indispensable resource not only to financial institutions but to all businesses that operate on a global level

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  TABLE OF CONTENTS

Introduction
Sam Wilkin

Section 1. Assessing Country Risk

1, Currency and Banking Crises: a Review of the Theories
Stijn Claessens
World Bank

2, Currency and Debt Crises: a Review of the Early Warning Systems
Alessio Ciarlone and Giorgio Trebeschi
Banca d'Italia

3, New Developments in Country Risk: the New Anatomy of Crises, Rising Public Debt Burdens, and Basel II
Khalid Sheikh and Peter Heijmans
ABN Amro

4, Assessing State Stability and Political Risk in Emerging Markets
Preston Keat and Alexander Motyl
Eurasia Group

5, Country Risk Components, the Cost of Capital, and Returns in Emerging Markets
Campbell Harvey
Duke University

6, The Private Sector Component of Country Risk
Carl Adams
eStandards Forum

7, Four Experts Discuss the Science and Art of Country Analysis
Sam Wilkin
Countryrisk.com

Section 2. Country Risk Cases

8, Building a Stress-Test Scenario for Country Risk: the Case of Turkey
Luigi Ruggerone
Banca Intesa

9, Domestic and External Political Factors and Country Risk: the Case of China
Therese Feng
Fitch Ratings

10, Structural Weaknesses and Country Risk: the Case of Brazil
Christian Stracke
CreditSights

11, Assessing Operational Risk: the Case of Russia
Guy Dunn
World Markets Research Centre

Section 3. Managing a country risk portfolio

12, Best Practices in Country Risk Management
Michael Bates
Oxford Analytica

13, Why Firms Fail to Manage Political Risk: Explaining and Correcting Organisational Failures
Michel Leonard
Aon Trade Credit

14, Pricing Political Risk within an Economic Capital Framework
Jotaro Hamada, Henning Haugerudbraaten; Andrew Hickman, Ilya Khaykin
Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency; Erisk

15, Managing Currency Inconvertibility and Exchange Transfer Risk: Identification, Assessment and Risk Transfer Issues
Martin Stone
Aon Political Risk

16, The Expanding Market for Sovereign Credit Default Swaps
Frank Packer; Chamaree Suthiphongchai
Bank for International Settlements; Bank of Thailand

Index

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  QUOTES

″...country risk analysis is too important to be practiced in isolation. Institutions and corporations must bring their learning and experience on best practices out into the open, and this publication is a worthy step in the right direction.″
Michael Bates, Oxford Analytica

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  AUTHOR BIOGRAPHY

Sam Wilkin is Editor-in-Chief of Countryrisk.com, an online magazine dedicated to country and political risk analysis. He previously served as country risk advisor and head of US political risk consulting for Aon Trade Credit, a division of the Fortune 500 insurance brokerage Aon Corporation. Prior to joining Aon, he worked as Director of Country Analysis for Marvin Zonis & Associates, a political risk consultancy. Sam studied economics at Eckerd College and Waseda University in Tokyo. He received his MA in international relations from the University of Chicago. He is co-author of The Kimchi Matters (Agate, 2003), has authored numerous articles on political risk and is the 2004 alumni fellow for Eckerd College. Sam lives in Chicago.

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  CONTRIBUTORS

Stijn Claessens-World Bank, Alessio Ciarlone and Giorgio Trebeschi-Banca d'Italia, Khalid Sheikh and Peter Heijmans-ABN Amro, Preston Keat and Alexander Motyl-Eurasia Group, Campbell Harvey-Duke University, Carl Adams-eStandards Forum, Luigi Ruggerone-Banca Intesa, Therese Feng-Fitch Ratings, Christian Stracke-CreditSights, Guy Dunn-World Markets Research Centre, Michael Bates-Oxford Analytica, Michel Leonard-Aon Trade Credit, Jotaro Hamada, Henning Haugerudbraaten; Andrew Hickman, Ilya Khaykin-Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency; Erisk, Martin Stone-Aon Political Risk, Frank Packer; Chamaree Suthiphongchai-Bank for International Settlements; Bank of Thailand
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