SUMMARY

• An original piece of writing by Professor Telser on the ″electronic futures market″ - a must for all futures industry professionals and market participants

• Section introductions illuminating the selections, including insights into their technical merit and relevance - both ″then and now″

• Rare archival photos and illustrations collected from the world's futures markets and major historical associations and societies

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  TABLE OF CONTENTS

CONTENTS
Edited by Lester G. Telser

Introduction - Electronic Trading
Lester G. Telser

Section 1 - Introduction

1 Structures and Methods for Meeting Uncertainty
Frank H. Knight

2 Constructive Speculation
Alfred Marshall

Section 2 - Theory of Storage, Hedging and Futures Markets

3 Speculation and Economic Stability
Nicholas Kaldor

4 Theory of the Inverse Carrying Charge in Futures Markets
Holbrook Working

5 Professor Vaile and the Theory of Inverse Carrying Charges
Holbrook Working

6 Futures Trading and the Storage of Cotton and Wheat
Lester G. Telser

7 Speculation on Hedging Markets
Holbrook Working

8 New Concepts Concerning Futures Markets and Prices
Holbrook Working

9 The Pricing of Commodity Contracts
Fischer Black

Section 3 - The Rationale, Structure and Performance of Futures Markets

10 The Technique of Mediaeval and Modern Produce Markets
Abbott Payson Usher

11 Futures and Actual Markets: How they are Related
Lester G. Telser

12 Origins of the Modern Exchange Clearinghouse: A History of Early Clearing and Settlement Methods at Futures Exchanges
James T. Moser

13 Organised Futures Markets: Costs and Benefits
Lester G. Telser and Harlow N. Higinbotham

14 Futures Markets: Their Purpose, Their History, Their Growth, Their Successes and Failures
Dennis W. Carlton

15 Monopoly, Manipulation and the Regulation of Futures Markets
Frank H. Easterbrook

Section 4 - Effects of Speculation

16 The Suspension of the Berlin Produce Exchange and its Effect upon Corn Prices
R. H. Hooker

17 The State of Long-Term Expectation
John Maynard Keynes

18 Speculation, Profitability and Stability
William J. Baumol

19 A Theory of Speculation Relating Profitability and Stability
Lester G. Telser

20 Profitable Speculation
Michael J. Farrell

21 Price Destabilising Speculation
Oliver D. Hart and David Kreps

Section 5 - Returns to Speculators and the Costs of Hedging

22 Can Speculators Forecast Prices?
H. S. Houthakker

23 Normal Backwardation, Forecasting and the Returns to Commodity Futures Traders
Charles S. Rockwell

24 Futures Trading and Investor Returns: An Investigation of Commodity Market Risk Premiums
Katherine Dusak

25 Luck versus Forecast Ability: Determinants of Trader Performance in Futures Markets
Michael L. Hartzmark

Section 6 - New Results on the Random Properties of Futures Prices

26 The Variation of Certain Speculative Prices
Benoit Mandelbrot

27 The Variation of Some Other Speculative Prices
Benoit Mandelbrot

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  QUOTES

″I cannot recommend this book highly enough. It is a gem!″
Glyn Holton, Contingency Analysis

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  REVIEW

Reviewed by Glyn Holton, Contingency Analysis
Quality Rating 5 - Exceptional

For readers who are familiar with futures markets but want to gain a deeper understanding, this book is superb. Telser presents the classic papers on futures markets and ties them together with his own introductory comments. In all, there are 27 papers, starting with Knight's 1921 distinction between risk and uncertainty and concluding with Mandelbrot's empirical analyses of futures price behavior. The papers are divided into six sections:

Introduction
Theory of storage, hedging and futures markets
Rational structure and performance of futures markets
Effects of speculation
Returns to speculators and the costs of hedging
New results on the random properties of futures prices

Telser's commentaries are insightful and convey a tremendous sense of history. The book is beautifully presented with historical plates dating to the 1600s. For in-depth study or simple browsing, I cannot recommend this book highly enough. It is a gem.

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  CONTRIBUTORS

Frank H. Knight, Alfred Marshall, Nicholas Kaldor, Holbrook Working, Fischer Black, Abbott Payson Usher, James T. Moser, Harlow N. Higinbotham, Dennis W. Carlton, Frank H. Easterbrook, R. H. Hooker, John Maynard Keynes, William J. Baumol, Michael J. Farrell, Oliver D. Hart, David Kreps, H. S. Houthakker, Charles S. Rockwell, Katherine Dusak, Michael L. Hartzmark, Benoit Mandelbrot
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